What are the Odds?
Capitol Disclosure By Stephen Bassett
November 2025
In case you did not know, for your consideration: the universe is 13.8 billion years old, the Milky Way Galaxy is 13.6 billion years old and the Earth 4.5 billion years old.
The number of galaxies in the universe is 2 trillion, the average number of stars in a Galaxy is 100 million.
The percentage of stars with planets is 80% to 100% with the latter more likely than the former, and the number of planets per star is usually between one and ten. Let’s say five.
Therefore, the number of planets in the universe, not counting solar systems that have come and gone is:
2 trillion X100 million x 5 = 2 x 1012th x 108th x 5 = 10 x 1020th = 1021th planets.
That is one trillion billion planets – a lot of planets.
Now, let’s estimate how many of those planets evolved living organisms over 13.8 billion years and go with one in a million. That leaves 1015th or a thousand trillion planets with life. We add how many of those living planets we estimate have evolved sentient life capable of understanding the laws of physics and creating technology and go with one in ten million. That leaves 108th or one billion planets with advanced civilizations. I should add these are generous calculations. The number is likely much larger.
This brings us to the point of this column, which contains way too much math.
The laws of physics are the same across the universe. Once you go down the science and technology road, you are going to pass through the same milestones.
Every one of these advanced planetary civilizations will reach a point when they can leave their planet. This will happen for the first time only once in the multibillion-year existence of that planet. Every one of these planets will make open contact for the first time as a technologically advanced civilization with extraterrestrial beings from elsewhere only once. And in some cases, both of these firsts will happen in a single human lifetime.
Homo Sapiens Sapiens, your species, have been around for about 300,000 years. Using 50 years as the average life span over those 300 millennia, that is 6,000 generations.
Lastly, it has been 100 years since the existence of galaxies was confirmed, 12 years since the age of the universe was pinned down, 19 years since the current size of the universe was last calculated giving the number of stars in the Milky Way as 100 to 400 billion, and 10 years since the last calculation of the size of the Milky Way at 150,000 thousand years.
So……….. with all this in mind, when you have regrets about the things you missed out on in your life or how the timing wasn’t right, walk out on a night with a crystal-clear sky.
As you stand there looking out to the universe, you will be one of only four generations out of sixty thousand who know how big and how old the universe and the galaxy are and how many are the stars and galaxies in that universe.
You will also be one in four generations alive out of 6,000 when your technologically advanced species first left the planet and open contact (count on it) is made with other species from elsewhere.
The odds of this are far greater than any jackpot-winning Powerball ticket. It is a cosmic gift of understanding and awe worth the ride however it ends or difficult the transit.
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Stephen Bassett is the Founder of the Paradigm Research Group and the Executive Director of The Hollywood Disclosure Alliance
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